The Star Beacon; Ashtabula, Ohio

October 12, 2012

A Steve Goldman column: Checking playoff possibilities

By STEVE GOLDMAN
For the Star Beacon

— Once again this week, we will take a look at the same four teams and their postseason prospects.

I also wish to say something about Grand Valley, as it is 4-3. Despite that, it has very little chance to make the playoffs. The second-level points just aren’t there.

Now to those four schools:

JEFFERSON — I hate to be the bad guy. But I have to report what I see.

You may have seen the weekly OHSAA computer rankings come out, and then you may have read in Tuesday’s Star Beacon what those rankings say about the 5-2 Falcons — that they are currently in playoff position. And it is true that they are currently in the all-important eighth and last playoff spot in Division III, Region 9 with 8.4877 computer points.

Certainly, the win over Lakeview was a big one for Jefferson. But it doesn’t change my overall outlook, which is that I don’t think they will make it to the postseason even if it wins out.

Now, it’s possible that the Falcons can make it, and as long as that is so, we will continue to look at their prospects. But it still appears that the region will have to finish much more weakly than usual in order for that to happen. Right now, although that is possible, it doesn’t project to happen.

Why do I say that? Mostly because Jefferson’s final two opponents (Girard and Conneaut) are currently winless, and do not project to be of much value in terms of computer points. The best sports analogy I can come up with is a car that is leading (or perhaps more accurately for this example, is in 8th place) in an auto race, and is near the end of that race, but has a mechanical problem and can’t get to a pit stop. Odds are, someone will catch it. But maybe it will get lucky and finish before that happens.

RIVERSIDE — Following the tough loss at University School, the 5-2 Beavers are in 17th place in Division I, Region 1 with 7.5071 points. However, the final three opponents — Chardon, South and Madison — are loaded with the potential to pick up computer points. Of course, hand-in-hand with that is the fact they are all tough foes.

To get in, Riverside will likely need to win all three of those games, and that still may or may not be enough.

MADISON — The Blue Streaks were now 4-3 entering last night’s game at Geneva and following their loss to South. They stand 10th in Division II, Region 5 with 9.2214 points.

At this point, it appears that if Madison wins out, it would finish on the bubble. At this time, the region projects to finish strong, which doesn’t help its cause.

EDGEWOOD — Following the loss to Brookfield, the Warriors are in the 15th position in Division IV, Region 13 with 5.6944 points.

My best guess is that if Edgewood wins out, it will finish on the bubble and need the region to finish somewhat weaker than average in order to make it to the playoffs.

Goldman is a freelance writer from South Euclid. Reach him at steve558@roadrunner.com.

Click here to subscribe to The Star Beacon print edition.

Click here to subscribe to The Star Beacon replica edition.